Differing developments in volatilities on the interest rate market: an opportunity

07.06.2019

The current market environment

The escalating US trade war has dominated the headlines in recent weeks. This is also overshadowing what is actually a healthy economic situation in most countries. Protectionism threatens economic growth. Central banks are now also taking a critical view and are increasingly deviating from their course of scaling back expansionary monetary policy, as the latest statements by Powell and Draghi show.

America versus Europe

In recent years, volatilities driven by central banks’ fiscal policies have been fairly low in absolute terms and also largely in sync globally. In recent days, however, an interesting development has emerged: In contrast to German Bunds, the implied volatilities of US Treasuries have risen significantly. This is shown in the chart below. There is great uncertainty about the Fed’s future course. More and more market participants now expect an interest rate cut. However, the Fed is not yet entirely convinced that it will deviate from its chosen course due to Trump’s policies. This interesting market environment opens up a good opportunity for returns.

Fig. 1: Implied Volatility (1 month, at-the-money, US Treasury Future vs. Bund Future)1Source: 7orca Asset Management AG, Bloomberg (01.01.2014 -06.06.2019)

Implications for the 7orca Vega Return Strategy

In the short term, this development has cost performance in the Treasury Future. In addition to mark-to-market losses in the course of valuation due to increased implied volatilities, calls have run into the money. For new option contracts, there is the possibility that 7orca can use the increased volatility level for attractive premium income. This is also reflected in the dynamic exposure management. The exposure is currently at a maximum for Treasury options and remains low for Bund options. The portfolio management is therefore taking advantage of the opportunity offered by the recent interest rate development.

More information on 7orca Vega Return

Disclaimer

This marketing communication is aimed at professional clients according to the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG) and is not suitable for private clients. This communication has been prepared to the best of our knowledge and based on the data available to us. However, no civil liability can be assumed in this respect. The sole basis for the acquisition of shares is the respective sales documents (key investor information, sales prospectus, annual and semi-annual report). The sales documents are available free of charge from 7orca Asset Management AG, the depository or from Universal-Investment-Gesellschaft mbH at www.universal-investment.com. A publication of 7orca Asset Management AG.

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Disclaimer

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